ELECTORAL PREFERENCES

RAFAEL LORET DE MOLA
Wednesday, June 16, 2010

If we believe in surveys of voter preferences in the twelve entities must renew governorships from July, the PRI will rise with a decisive victory in eleven of them and with the exception of Tlaxcala, but if we look more closely different perspectives, with friendly information and direct testimonies, the PRI may be at risk of being defeated in at least five states: Oaxaca, Sinaloa, Tlaxcala, Durango and Puebla.And despite controls governors who qualifies as bosses to keep them open proselytizing and others, such as Enrique Peña Nieto, who in this way advance the presidential campaign.

Of course, under the burden of unhealthy sectarianism each side notes on their opponents the same deviations that similar hidden.If we speak of chiefdoms, it would be necessary to stop, also on the feuds dominated by the PAN and the PRD, supposedly allies seek the common goal of removing perverse authoritarian ideologies with clear sideways, where leaders often act with the same , autocratic behavior. Want examples?Let's start with where the PAN Aguascalientes Luis Armando Reynoso has the luxury of promoting the PRI's Carlos Lozano, and Zacatecas, Amalia group sifting Garcia who, however, could not avoid the collapse of the left and thus the possibility a return after two six PRD PRI.

The conditions, with one exception, are the same:a marked polarization, usually between the structure dominant PRI and an opposition splinter collected bearers between the PRI itself perhaps the effect of the intervention of the governors whose main stake is, of course, which assures them a future without the jolts of audits and witch hunts.

In the case of Veracruz, where the PAN and the PRD failed to coalesce because it means the presence of Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares in the race as a champion of PAN without memory or political ethics.Applying for a subject like this, enriched in the exercise of power, when he was general secretary Patricio Chirinos regime who became drunk, and grown in the shade of the influential "Bride of Chucky" naked personal motivations very different from public service and common interest.

So, of course, the recent incident with representatives Yunes 400 people must register within the usual manipulative strategy of a right that specializes in building scenarios for feeling victimized.Wow, if their leaders have been able to exploit to the abduction of Diego Fernandez de Cevallos of the PAN and murder Mario Guajardo, who was candidate for mayor of Valle Hermoso, Tamaulipas, thereby seeking to point out the PRI state government without compromising the profound neglect of the federal government under the thumb of PAN, we can not doubt their ability to assemble any kind of props ...revised and expanded versions of what made the PRI hegemony.

This is only a sample of the levels are reached and encouragement disputes in almost half the national territory. And that's without considering the vehement vendettas between gangs that are common in the northern border and in some others, like Michoacan, where no election in sight this year.The incendiary material abounds with increasing the decibels of the polemic on the uses of power and the resulting rain of mud, for example, Governor Fidel Herrera of Veracruz, received with the precision of an experienced meteorologist due to a storm indefinitely.

When I asked Herrera, Jan. 19 - "2012:The Succession ", Oceanus, 2010 - on the versions that point to their alleged contacts with drug trafficking, in particular the so-called" Zetas, "he replied without hesitation:

"No, no. This unfounded accusation, without any basis, left the mouth of Miguel Angel Yunes. They said there was a picture of me next to "El Azul" (Juan Jose Esparragoza, former federal agent Guadalajara cartel founder and later linked to the Juarez). And the only "blue" I've seen is to Yunes.Unless in some encounter with Monaco it has been mistaken for a drug.

The fact is that, in Veracruz, even considering Ochoa Javier Duarte as an aspiring low-key compared to some of those who preceded him as a candidate of his party, the PRI will have no problem ... because the alleged "opposition" of sidewalk, Yunes Linares, well covers that said that the "remedy" is far worse than the disease.And it is not, of course, the only case among the champions in the field by the dense national geopolitics.

Debate

Tlaxcala must be addressed, governed by Hector Ortiz, a former PRI and PAN now who rose from the State Administration of Beatriz Paredes Rangel, the current national leader of the PRI.By the way, the lady herself Rangel told me that during his term as governor between 1987 and 1992, both Ortiz as it's predecessor, Alfonso Sánchez Anaya, PRD, chaired ... PRI state in two periods of three years. Each chose one end lacked momentum and heat within the institute which they formed. A case for other curious.

Tlaxcala is news, even though the waters do not seem to have gotten out of bed yet, so far as to recent opinion polls, where this columnist does not firmly believes, "place the PAN Adriana Dávila Fernández a point above PRI opponent, Mariano Gonzalez-repeater Zarur. It is, by far, the only institution where, according to dubious polls, the PRI is leading not only maintains a little lower, a sort of stalemate.This requires a course foresee uncertain even if the alternations in this region does not mean, considering sources and groups, no structural change. All are watered from the same sources.

It is curious that Tlaxcala, home of Paredes Rangel where PRI fall behind.Especially because everyone knows the disagreements between Mrs. Gonzalez Paredes and the candidate Zarur, same as converged precisely the division of Ortiz, but it lost, and it has always maintained, its surroundings with the former governor. Did that mean then that the PRI's national leader cons play on his party in the state that she led?Answered in the affirmative would be faced with a dilemma about the ethics of political actors at the time of the worst sectarian breakdown of the story.

Of course, it would in answering the fiery advocate of PRI that has not been able to renew. On the contrary:commitment to the return of top predators, led by Emilio Gamboa Yucatec located in the CNOP as if this were a prize for the dirty work, with intentions to succeed in the presidency Paredes Rangel PRI.Are these "signals" about the alleged "renewal" PRI sent to an electorate that questioned near Peña Nieto, the most viable candidates for the Presidency, with their relatives, Arturo Montiel and Alfredo del Mazo, and his mentor Carlos Salinas? In an evil hour for the most cited mexiquense gather the names of the great devastating. Do you have any explanation?

The proceeds of Beatrice in his homeland, finally, not separating infected from the same perspective that she observes in the murky alliances with the PRD PAN. And you must weigh the public.

The Challenge

In such circumstances it is likely that in many of the processes covered entities settled on 4 July, will converge towards post-electoral conflicts more or less magnitude.Without doubt, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Puebla, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala, Durango, Chihuahua, Quintana Roo, Veracruz Zacatecas and even for the blindness of Yunes by other known and predictable, the disputes could be inflammatory condition and, as such, high risk for overall stability.

And to whom would benefit this climate? The PRI was going to at all before the murky alliances? Or PAN and the PRD that did not measure scope or conflicting?"Rather, the lobbyists who are ready to reposition itself by presenting invoices policies at the time, just as they did in the federal charter after the 2006 elections unkempt?

If the crimes are investigated after its greatest beneficiaries who are also political outcomes should raise the same line.Above all it is, really, to discover the original sins of the many actors in the field would never recognize the minor defect itself, the elemental self fasts, upon an exercise in Manichean and fractious.

The Trivia

Senator Santiago Creel Miranda, told me in an interview last December that Elba Esther Gordillo had been a "determining factor" in the internal election of the PAN in 2005.However, the legislature itself has chosen to clarify, in careful letter that I sent:

"An election is won or lost by many factors. I do not think there is a decisive factor to explain wins or losses. Why not agree to what is expressed by the teacher says Elba Esther Gordillo in the context of internal process.

In similar vein, Secretary of Education, Alonso Lujambio Irazábal, who for many is the new "Dolphin" The Cauldron, he refused to give their views on the controversial leader of a teachers even when I insisted, five times that. Saying only that "she did not intervene in the election (internal)." ("2012: The Succession")

Apparently, in recent days, and I heard the voices of their own candidates for the PAN nomination, relations between the singular Elba Esther with the party in government, whether the PRI or the PAN no matter alternations, enjoy full health. There must be some. Abounded.

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Rafael Loret de Mola

Writer
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