THE INGENUITY

RAFAEL LORET DE MOLA



Monday, June 14, 2010 The sense of foreboding in Mexico are only perhaps fanciful scenarios ending in March 1994 when, before the collective astonishment, Luis Donaldo Colosio was gunned down in cold blood in the trap became available to him in Lomas Taurinas, the coordinators of his campaign possibly contaminated by the presidential palace and its main operator: the Franco-Spanish Joseph-Marie Cordoba Montoya.Until then, Mexican voters only smiled, as if it were a mockery, when polls began showing a marked shift towards the opposition, specifically PAN then championed by Diego Fernandez de Cevallos, to the detriment of the perverse tradition continues under the guise protector of the official party.

As we know, killed the candidate who is noted as "Future President" along the lines of custom-and treated as such in terms of security by the Presidential and General Domir García Reyes, the "inconsolable" that has not given all the answers ", it a few days to exalt substitute, Ernesto Zedillo, from a video in which Colosio recognized the merits of that when he was appointed campaign manager.

It was like an imperative call for party unity in order to avoid unnecessary fissures. Of course, former presidents, Luis Echeverria especially who already acted on behalf of Emilio Gamboa Patron CNOP now leader of the PRI as a clear sign of "renewal" in the eyes of a citizenship of mafia-satiated, were stopped short . And tore the shortest campaign in history, reduced to just three months, and the most effective:so far, Zedillo, without clear political profile even less charisma, is the most votes in Mexican history with a guard of more than 17 million votes. The ploy worked perfectly ... on the political blood spilled.

With this background, the shadow of impunity sustained through sixteen, and weighing the risks of public insecurity in fact extended throughout the Republic, we can not rule out any scenario, including criminal, facing the succession process and initiated and will lead to the mythological 2012.And this, of course, does not mean a perverse induction but a call to time to prevent the breakdown seems even greater, though we have hit bottom, the Mexican political system. Much less when you consider that those responsible for masterminding the assassination of Colosio, the same as those of other ominous events such as the killings of Cardinal Juan Jesus Posada Ocampo and Juan Francisco Ruiz Massieu, in 1993 and 1994, respectively, were not even mentioned.Pure lone murderers. Really?

And do not talk about the scenery of these criminals, we work on "2012: The Succession" Ocean ", but of nothing veiled warnings that circulate everywhere, and not of any caliber because some of them have already been accomplished. Well you know, at least two governors in the north who claims a famous capo placed them in bitter situation;and also the president of Zacatecas, Amalia García, tusada just over a year by the grace of the narcos in flooding throughout the region and even Durango. Can not be excluded that the abduction of Fernandez de Cevallos has the same record through subversive camouflage garb of social activists.

In Sinaloa, as has already described at the time, that anyone trying to sit in the chair of the Governor may do so if previously "negotiate" with the cartels positioned in the state.Perhaps that is why the suspicions grow about PRI Jesus Vizcarra Calderon, who provided the privilege suspiciously acting governor Jesus Aguilar Padilla, because their alleged relationships with influential Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, so visible that does not hesitate to portray with Scherer to appear on the cover of Process ...without letting go, of course, though some interpreted his message as a greeting to Felipe Calderón for what they are not concerned, neither he nor his group, the cartel's "Chapo" Guzman, in attacking it. Go respirito.

It would be naive to assume, rather, that under the scourge of violence and increasing political decay, tried by court intrigue and partisan archaic forms-the "black campaign" of 2006 are hardly a safe precedent, "applicants to First Judiciary, as well as all those who approach the governorships of the twelve institutions in the process of renewing them from next July, although in two cases, Hidalgo and Quintana Roo, the transfer of state executivesbe given until April 2011 - are exempt from pressures and pitfalls. The ingenuity is not therefore take this warning but precisely the opposite concern, that is ignore.

The cards also seem marked by the heat of a battle that, unfortunately, our government is not leading. And the power vacuums expand.

Debate


Decomposed in this environment, where the "boss" Zambada and announced his intention not to undermine Calderon's government or it personally, it appears that those at greatest risk are, in this order: Enrique Peña Nieto, avant-garde by just when the president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose figure moves to the impoverished in the process of despair, Marcelo Ebrard, as it may represent an option on the left ...and Senator Santiago Creel Miranda, whose profile is not presidential focus group within the PAN. Readers do not misunderstand: the columnist points out, above.

We know that, at least, Pena Nieto has been threatened, for just over two years by the Sinaloa cartel. This was taken when, in late May 2008, forged an operation to apprehend Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel, third in the hierarchy of that group behind the "Shorty" and "El Mayo".Since then, the Mexican governor, strengthened its own security and that of his family, especially after the incident in Veracruz where the guards lost their lives for their children, precisely in May 2007, just months after the death of Monica Pretelini, the mother of the children-even though, of late, there has been some easing by the imperative of the governor for being close to the masses that come together to party rallies.

López Obrador, for his own show and although it has security features, including women with enormous operational capacity, faces serious risks. I do not even supposed what their reaction would be unconditional, of unknown number, but able to form cords that are convened every multitudinous, s the event of an attack against civil resistance leader.And this could be extended to the figure of Ebrard, who maintains loyalty and closeness with López Obrador despite its strategic disputes.

Finally, the case could take place in parallel Creel, although undesirable, with the terrible bondage of Fernandez de Cevallos, so contrary to the elite Calderón in office the president must recognize and explain verbally leading when the painful fact repelled.Don Santiago Calderon's rival since many years, say from the moment he shared Fox's cabinet and began the turbulence of the sequence of it. I have, in short, perception, so far purely speculative, about their main enemies are too close to him.

The Forge of the plots is so broad that, as basic common sense, it is unreasonable to dismiss the hypothesis as formulated above.Although they seem ominous and pretend therefore inadmissible.

The Challenge


For these reasons, the biggest challenge is precisely to preserve the integrity of the candidates, all of them and not only those named-is obvious that the other secretaries of state, governors or legislators, have an outstanding exposure, "to thereby ensuring the political viability of the country.If we fall into a tendency to advance coup, as happened in 1994, the conflict will tend, inevitably, to the lawlessness. And already we are in a stage whose complexity is much to see.

Because, of course, drug traffickers and insurgents are not the only dangers to weigh.It should also be noted that the military commands and judicial vagaries involved in constant and high-sounding pulses, for example, the Coahuila Humberto Moreira Valdes has continued to point out the excesses of the military in ever more heated tone, as when referring to sectarian come to him from the presidential palace, "can generate a highly dangerous environment because street and increase their coverage with them the abuses of royal power over a society isgraph of helplessness.

The picture is not rosy. And not merely a fevered imagination. The worst thing would be, again, that the bombs will explode in our hands because no one was able to disable the magazines fully identified.

The Trivia


In October 1993, when it appeared in bookstores "Interim President", Grijalbo, "whose outcome was precisely the murder of the official presidential candidate, then-Secretary of the Interior, Chiapas, Patrocinio Gonzalez Blanco Garrido, replied sarcastically to statement:

- The Mexicans do not imagine an "interim president"-claimed, "or the raw new year!

When, at last came the dawn of 1994, the officer awoke, taken very close to San Cristobal de las Casas, in the family ranch, unable to find explanations in appearance. Then in March, with sponsorship outside the Palais des Bucareli, there would be the assassination of Lomas Taurinas. And the hangover lasted until September, when it dropped the former governor of Guerrero, Ruiz Massieu, called to be the "Dolphin" substitute Zedillo's cabinet.

The report helps to prevent recidivism and greater evils. But unfortunately, it is always more accurate collective amnesia.

E-Mail: rafloret@hotmail.com